By Gord Moose, with James Turtle and Leonard Buffalo
Analysis and commentary

Canada has good reason to seek more customers for its oil. Canadians have equally good reason to ask what that effort will cost, who benefits, and whose rights must be respected.

A project this large needs answers to all three. Preferably before the ceremonial shovels come out.

On October 1, Prime Minister Mark Carney, alongside Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, announced that Pacific Link had been designated a project of national interest under the Building Canada Act. Ottawa aims to finalize its federal conditions by September 1, 2027. Design, financing and further consultation remain part of the work ahead.

The proposed pipeline would carry up to one million barrels of crude daily from Bruderheim, Alberta, to an export facility near Delta, British Columbia. The precise route remains unsettled.

The designation gives the project federal backing and a consolidated review process. It does not mean every engineering question has been answered, every dollar secured, or every affected community’s concerns resolved.

This is a consequential step. Whether it becomes a sound investment is the larger test.

More customers, more choices

The strongest argument for Pacific Link is straightforward: Canada should have options when selling its resources.

More access to overseas buyers could strengthen producers’ bargaining position and reduce their vulnerability to American trade decisions. If one market becomes less welcoming, another route gives exporters somewhere else to turn.

That opportunity deserves a fair hearing. Canadian workers, suppliers and governments could benefit from additional investment and stronger sales.

But a route to market must become paying business. Producers need to commit to using the line, and the project needs sufficient revenue to cover construction, financing, operations and maintenance.

The financial case should be tested against weaker oil prices, higher construction costs and changing demand. Canadians need to know whether it still works when the assumptions become less comfortable.

The employment promises also require explanation. The Major Projects Office describes approximately 140,000 jobs as a potential peak covering direct and indirect effects from pipeline construction and upstream development. That includes activity beyond the pipeline itself. It is not a promise of 140,000 permanent positions operating the line.

Construction work matters. Anyone who has earned a living building things knows that temporary work can pay very real bills. But Canadians should also know what employment remains once construction ends.

Follow the money—and the risk

The federal explanatory document estimates the pipeline’s cost at C$35.2 billion to C$43.7 billion, including contingency—an allowance for uncertainty and unexpected costs.

I would wager a week’s worth of bannock that the final bill tests that estimate. That is a columnist’s wager, not a cost forecast. The serious question is who pays if the estimate proves optimistic.

The ownership plan gives Pembina a 10% economic interest through construction, with federal and Alberta entities sharing the balance equally. Indigenous ownership opportunities are also proposed, with their terms still to be settled.

Ownership percentages alone do not explain who supplies each dollar, guarantees borrowing or absorbs particular losses. Those obligations depend on the financing agreements.

Pembina’s statement makes one point clear: it retains discretion over its final investment decision and will have no development capital at risk before then.

In plain English, Pembina can examine the developing project before deciding whether to commit its investment. It says its own development money will not be exposed to loss before that decision.

Meanwhile, bringing a proposal to that stage requires engineering, environmental studies, consultations and financial planning.

How much public money will be committed to that work? Who absorbs the spending if the project does not proceed? If it does proceed, who pays for overruns, and how are profits and losses shared?

Pembina is entitled to protect its shareholders. Governments owe taxpayers comparable care.

Public ownership can be justified by investment returns, broader economic benefits or strategic value. But these are different arguments. A project might serve a national purpose while earning disappointing financial returns.

Canadians deserve to know which benefits justify the commitment, how they are measured, and what happens if they fall short.

What would Indigenous ownership actually mean?

The project partners have committed to offering Indigenous communities at least 10% ownership, supported by loan guarantee programs. The terms are to be settled before construction.

This is an opportunity to buy part of the business. The federal guarantee program supports financing for Indigenous equity purchases in major projects.

In broad terms, a loan guarantee provides backing to a lender under agreed conditions. That can help a borrower obtain financing. The loan still has repayment terms, and the purchased investment still has risks.

It is not free ownership or guaranteed profit.

A participating Nation could receive investment income, potentially supporting housing, education, services or other priorities it chooses. Ownership may also provide influence over business decisions, depending on the agreement.

But income available for community use could be reduced by borrowing costs and repayment obligations. Returns could disappoint if the project performs poorly.

That makes the details essential: what will the shares cost, what debt is required, what voting or board rights come with them, and who bears losses under the financing arrangement?

Independent advice and clear information should help communities decide whether the offer suits their interests. An ownership percentage makes a headline. The terms determine what it is worth.

Rights cannot be settled by a share offer

Investment opportunities and Indigenous rights must both receive serious attention.

Ottawa’s explanatory document acknowledges that most Indigenous communities consulted were not prepared to support listing on the information available. That does not establish universal, permanent rejection of construction. It also prevents us from honestly describing the designation as broadly endorsed.

The Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs rejects the designation and challenges the consultation process, citing risks to territories, waters and rights.

Different Nations will reach different conclusions. Some may pursue ownership. Others may seek changes, require more information or oppose the proposal. One Nation’s decision cannot settle another’s concerns.

Affected Nations need sufficient information, time and resources to assess the project. Meaningful participation must allow concerns to influence decisions while options remain open.

Ottawa’s assertion that it has fulfilled its consultation obligations is the government’s position, not an independent court ruling.

A project serving Canada must take seriously the people whose lands and waters it would affect.

Protect the benefits from exploitation

Potential investment income brings another set of questions: who manages it, how are decisions reported to members, and what protects community assets?

These are ordinary requirements for major investments. Public corporations, pension funds and Indigenous investment entities all need competent management, clear reporting and safeguards against misuse.

For participating communities, the choices could include how much income to reinvest, how much to spend on current priorities, and what to preserve for future generations. Those decisions belong to the communities themselves.

Community safety deserves attention too. Public Safety Canada’s First Nations Organized Crime Initiative supports particular First Nations police services in addressing organized crime and cross-border criminality. That establishes a recognized concern in those settings. It does not predict what would happen in Pacific Link communities.

The evidence reviewed does not establish that pipeline revenue would bring more drugs or gangs onto reserves. We should not turn a concern into a claim we cannot support.

We should ask what protections will prevent criminal groups from exploiting contracts, financial arrangements or vulnerable people.

Will there be safeguards against fraud, extortion and money laundering? Will participating communities have the policing, addiction treatment and youth supports they identify as necessary?

We must also distinguish money received by a Nation’s investment entity from payments to individual members. Whether benefits would fund services, remain invested or be distributed needs explaining.

Prosperity could help communities address longstanding needs. Protecting that prosperity should be part of the planning.

Environmental promises need enforceable conditions

The federal explanation acknowledges that additional oil production enabled by the pipeline would increase emissions. Ottawa links the project to carbon capture and other reduction measures.

Canadians need to understand what those measures are expected to accomplish—and whether they deliver.

Reducing emissions per barrel and reducing total emissions are different results. If production grows, both measures matter when assessing the overall effect.

What reductions must be achieved, by when, and at whose expense? What happens if the technology or supporting projects are delayed?

Land and marine protections require the same discipline: enforceable conditions, credible monitoring, emergency plans and clear responsibility for cleanup.

A reassuring announcement is useful. A requirement that can be enforced is better.

What reaches the average Canadian?

Workers may gain jobs. Suppliers may gain contracts. Governments and participating Nations may gain revenue.

Those benefits could be substantial, but their distribution matters.

Public revenue can support services or other government priorities. Investment income can benefit public owners. Neither automatically tells a household how much better off it will be.

Projected economic growth does not guarantee cheaper groceries, lower rent or cheaper gasoline. Nor does a construction job elsewhere in the country answer every concern about a local environmental risk.

Canadians deserve a clear account of who benefits, when those benefits arrive, and what financial and environmental commitments make them possible.

Carney and Smith deserve credit for pursuing cooperation on a major economic proposal. Their cooperation must now produce arrangements whose finances, protections and benefits withstand scrutiny.

Canada’s economic opportunity, taxpayer accountability and Indigenous rights carry equal weight. Each is part of the national interest.

We can recognize the opportunity and insist on a sound deal. That is how Canadians should approach an investment of this scale.

Calling Pacific Link a project of national interest is a government decision. Demonstrating that it serves the national interest is the work still ahead.

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