By Gary Goose | International Analysis, North of Polite

Featured image: AI-generated editorial illustration.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud won the most seats in Israel’s October 27 election, taking 27 of 120. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar won 21. Yet when President Isaac Herzog asked parliamentary factions whom he should task with forming a government, 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot and 46 recommended Netanyahu. Herzog said he would announce his choice on Sunday, November 8. Whoever receives the mandate will have 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension.

Where the votes are, and why they’re hard to put together

Eisenkot’s four-party bloc holds 48 seats. The two Arab-led parties that recommended him hold 19 between them. Together, those numbers explain his 67 recommendations. They also expose his central problem. Eisenkot has ruled out bringing the two parties into his government, and several of his partners oppose working with them. The Joint List has raised the possibility of supporting a minority government from outside the cabinet. That would still require Eisenkot’s allies to accept that their government could depend on Arab-led parties for crucial votes.

The other opening is United Torah Judaism, whose seven lawmakers withheld their recommendation from Netanyahu. Even if all seven joined Eisenkot’s bloc, 48 plus seven would give him 55 seats. He would still need more support. Eisenkot has made compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Israelis a priority. Bringing an ultra-Orthodox party into the negotiations would put that commitment on the table.

What an Eisenkot government would have to answer

Eisenkot is a former military chief who served in Netanyahu’s war cabinet and resigned in 2024 after criticizing the government’s strategy in Gaza. He has called for a state commission of inquiry into the failures that preceded the Hamas-led October 7 attacks. Any coalition agreement he reaches will show which partners are willing to back an inquiry, what they demand on military service, and whether the Arab-led parties’ record 19 seats translate into a say in how Israel is governed.

Sources

President Isaac Herzog’s statement · Congressional Research Service on government formation · The Times of Israel reporting on coalition options · Associated Press profile of Eisenkot

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