Analysis by North of Polite

There is a name Canadians are going to hear increasingly often in the debate over Alberta independence:

Jeffrey Rath.

Rath is an Alberta lawyer and one of the leading figures associated with the Alberta Prosperity Project, or APP, which advocates for Alberta becoming an independent country.

There are plenty of angry accusations flying around about Rath and Alberta separatism.

We’re not interested in adding another one.

Instead, North of Polite wants to ask some very simple questions:

Who is Jeffrey Rath?

What does the Alberta Prosperity Project actually want?

Have its representatives been meeting with the United States government?

What have they discussed?

Is the United States supporting Alberta independence?

And perhaps most importantly:

What can we actually prove?

FIRST: ALBERTA SEPARATISM IS REAL

Whatever Canadians may think about the movement, dismissing it as a few angry people on the internet would be a mistake.

Elections Alberta says the citizen initiative petition asking whether Alberta should leave Canada collected 286,593 signatures initially.

After verification, 279,337 were considered valid—well above the 177,732 signatures required under the applicable legislation.

That does not mean 279,337 Albertans necessarily support independence.

Signing a petition to hold a referendum and voting to leave Canada are two different things.

But it does mean the issue is serious enough to deserve serious attention.

SO WHO IS JEFFREY RATH?

Rath is an Alberta lawyer who has represented First Nations in major litigation and is now a prominent legal and public figure in the Alberta independence movement.

The Alberta Prosperity Project identifies him as its legal counsel, and Rath has publicly advocated for Alberta sovereignty.

That part isn’t controversial.

What becomes much more interesting is what happened next.

DID ALBERTA SEPARATISTS ACTUALLY MEET AMERICAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS?

Yes.

This is no longer merely a claim circulating on social media.

Multiple reports have said representatives associated with the Alberta Prosperity Project met U.S. State Department officials in Washington.

American officials themselves acknowledged that meetings occurred.

That distinction is extremely important.

The U.S. government’s position, however, is very different from the interpretation presented by some separatist leaders.

American officials characterized the contacts as routine meetings with civil-society organizations and said no commitments were made.

U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra subsequently went further, saying the Trump administration was not meeting with separatists to strategize Alberta independence and had not discussed providing financial support for an independent Alberta.

So we have something unusual:

The meetings are real.

What those meetings mean is disputed.

WHAT DOES RATH SAY HAPPENED?

Rath has publicly described meetings with U.S. officials and has portrayed American interest in Alberta independence as substantial.

He has also said that one meeting occurred inside a SCIF—a highly secure facility used by the American government.

North of Polite has not found independent public evidence establishing what was discussed inside that particular meeting or confirming Rath’s characterization of the officials’ enthusiasm.

Therefore, we aren’t going to present those claims as established facts.

But we don’t have to rely entirely on Rath’s descriptions to understand what his movement wants from Washington.

Because the Alberta Prosperity Project has published it itself.

THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET SERIOUS

On its own website, the Alberta Prosperity Project has discussed desired American involvement in an independent Alberta.

Among the ideas it has publicly described are:

• Immediate American recognition of an independent Alberta.
• American cooperation on energy corridors and pipelines.
• Financial arrangements to support Alberta during a transition from Canada.
• And, most remarkably, a proposed US$500-billion financial backstop or line of credit involving the United States.

That isn’t an accusation from Ottawa.

It comes from the movement’s own published material.

Rath has subsequently described discussions surrounding such financing as a hypothetical or “academic exercise” rather than a direct solicitation for American money.

That distinction should be reported too.

DID AMERICA AGREE TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION?

We found no evidence that it did.

That’s extremely important.

American officials have said no commitments were made.

Reports have also indicated that U.S. Treasury officials were unaware of such a request and did not intend to engage with one.

So anyone saying:

“America has promised Alberta $500 billion to leave Canada”

would currently be going considerably beyond the available evidence.

What we can accurately say is this:

People advocating Alberta independence have publicly contemplated an enormous American financial backstop and have held meetings with American government officials.

Those are two established facts.

Connecting them into a secret American commitment requires evidence we don’t currently have.

IS THE UNITED STATES SECRETLY RUNNING ALBERTA SEPARATISM?

We found no credible evidence proving that.

That question deserves investigation.

It does not deserve an invented answer.

There is currently a significant difference between saying:

“Alberta separatists have sought relationships with American officials.”

and saying:

“The United States created or controls Alberta separatism.”

The first statement has evidence behind it.

The second currently does not.

And if we’re going to complain about foreign propaganda, Canadians shouldn’t manufacture our own.

WHAT ABOUT MONEY?

This is another area where Canadians should demand transparency rather than jump to conclusions.

Elections Alberta maintains financial-disclosure requirements associated with citizen initiatives and referendum activity.

As of our check on September 6, the public Elections Alberta page still displayed the financial statement for the independence initiative as due September 3 rather than providing the completed statement.

That is something worth watching.

It is also something that should be reported carefully.

A missing or outstanding disclosure is not proof of illegal funding.

It is simply a reason to ask whether the required information has been filed and, when it is available, what it shows.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Jeffrey Rath is a real figure in Alberta’s independence movement.

The Alberta separatist movement is real.

Meetings between people associated with the movement and American officials have taken place.

The Alberta Prosperity Project has publicly discussed significant American involvement in the event of Alberta independence, including a proposed US$500-billion financial backstop.

But there is currently no evidence establishing that the United States has secretly committed $500 billion to Alberta, created the Alberta separatist movement, or taken control of it.

Those distinctions matter.

North of Polite isn’t interested in deciding the story before the evidence is in.

We’re interested in following the evidence wherever it leads.

Because when the subject is something as serious as Canada’s territorial integrity and the possibility of foreign interference, “we don’t know yet” is a perfectly legitimate answer.

Sometimes it is the most honest one.

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North of Polite
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